How Good Is A Model

Deciding which model to use is the most difficult component of the modeling process^ The type of variables utilized and the output parameters desired usually influence the type of model used^

Once a model is chosen, the question is how good is it?

There are a number of methods to assess the accuracy or effectiveness of modeK One commonly employed method is to calculate the area under the receiver operating characteristic

The receiver operating characteristic curve is the graphical representation of the True Positive Rate (sensitivity) versus the False Positive Rate (l-specificity) It essentially illustrates the trade-off between sensitivity and specificity for a model The ideal model would have an receiver operating characteristic of L

Table 1 illustrates a general guide to the meaning of area under the receiver operating characteristic values^

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